Quote:
Originally Posted by SebC
Please, show that NHLe has diminished predictive value for "projects".
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The problem with fixating on Jankowski's NHLe, and to an extent Poirier and co, is as follows:
1) Is his deployment on a team that rolls four lines evenly the same and make them focus on development over stats accounted for? Does NHLe
account for his minutes distribution (14 minutes a game VS 22 minutes a game)? Is there a sacrifice in his stats as a center in a system playing essentially "third defenseman" versus a center playing "third winger"?
2) Does NHLe account for the physical disadvantage he's been playing through? How effective do you think a 170lb Milan Lucic would be in a mens league VS a 230lb Milan Lucic? Would this 60lb difference in weight (and subsequencely balance, strength, confidence) fail to be reflected in Lucic's statistics in a mens league (which College Hockey is)? Because as a Senior Jankowski still isn't a fully developed player, he's lacking in size despite size being one of his projected strengths as an NHLer.
3) Does NHLe account for Quality of Teammate? Jonathan Toews in his two college seasons played with TJ Oshie (#24OA). Some other teammates on that team include Travis Zajac (#20OA) and Drew Stafford(#13OA). Last season Brandon Hickey played with Jack Eichel (#2OA). Jankowski's highest drafted teammates in his four seasons at Providence, aside from Jon Gillies, have been (a) Eric Foley (#78OA), who as an 185lb freshman this season put up... the same stats Jankowski did as a 168 Freshman on a much lower scoring team and (b) Jake Walman (#82OA), who only broke out as a Sophomore during Janko's senior year. It'll be interesting to see if Walman can produce the same "NHLe" without Jankowski and co or he's a victim of the same situation that caused a drop in Hickey's stats without Eichel. Again though, both of these players did not really break out until Jankowski's senior season, which co-incidentally happens to be the first 40 point season Providence has had under Leaman.
I am not saying NHLe is a useless stat, far from it. But it's useless
in isolation.