Quote:
Originally Posted by SebC 
Please, show that NHLe has diminished predictive value for "projects".
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Quote:
Originally Posted by druetetective
And how would he attempt to do that? How could you even pinpoint what players are projects?
Industry standard thinking has always been bigger guys take longer ala Colborne.
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I'd guess a player that needs to go College hockey or the CHL to the AHL is a project.
Here's some interesting stats.
Quote:
League
Equivalencies
–
Gabriel
Desjardins
WHL
N
OHL
N
QMJHL
N
To
AHL
0.43
302
0.45
295
0.41
135
To
NHL
0.30
143
0.30
205
0.28
62
The
AHL
-
NHL
league
equivalency
implied
by
these
results
can
then
be
compared
to
the
observed
equivalency
of
players
moving
from
the
AHL
to
the
NHL
directly
at
age
18
and
age
19:
LgEq
N
Implied
0.68
Observed
0.65
154
Because
younger
players
improve
much
more
ra
pidly
than
older
players,
the
AHL
league
equivalency
is
much
higher
for
junior
-
age
players
than
for
players
in
their 20s
|
As seen an 18 or 19 year old CHL player going directly to the NHL has an equivalency of 0.65 instead of the 0.30.
http://hockeyanalytics.com/Research_...ivalencies.pdf