Quote:
Originally Posted by polak
Curious, people always warn people about "writing off prospects early" but honestly, how often does a grade A, blue chip prospect like Drouin stumble hard out of the gate and then end up living up to their draft day potential?
Seems like prospects that live up to their hype:
- Explode right off the bat and are immediately a force
- Start off well and take big steps in their first couple years
Do you often see players stumbling out of the gate for more than a season or two and then all of the sudden become that elite talent they were supposed to be?
Seems like the Sven Baertschi route is far more common for top prospects players who dont start of their career well. IE fail to live up to the hype, pressure starts mounting to perform, expectations lowered, either finds new diminished role or doesn't make the NHL.
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Drouin's numbers were very solid given the playing time/opportunities he was given. If you watch some of his highlights, he most certainly was living up to his draft potential.
Generally, there's also a difference in the rate of recovery as you go further down the draft. A mid-rounder with lots of skill is generally a gamble. A high first round pick is generally much more of a sure thing.