Quote:
Originally Posted by Flames_F.T.W
I have no hopes of winning the lottery and have resigned myself to just hoping the Oilers don't win either. I'm mentally preparing myself to get bumped the full 3 places from teams behind us in the standings winning the 3 lottery picks. I think we've used up all of our draft luck on Monahan, Bennett and finding Brodie and Gaudreau in the 4th round.
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The only teams that have a realistic chance of dropping three spots are the bottom 3-4 teams. Where we currently sit it's less than a 1% chance of moving back three spots. That ain't happening.
The lower our lottery seed the less likely we get bumped back. Even moving back two spots where we are now is far less likely (11.7%) then our chance of drafting top 3 would be (20.6%).
Let's not go overboard with the doom and gloom. Having a 1 in 5 shot of drafting top 3 isn't insignificant. The chance of moving back 2-3 spots from where we are is fairly insignificant.