Quote:
Originally Posted by mikephoen
The fact that players come out of junior more prepared than ever for the NHL actually reflects badly on modern scouting. The overall talent pool is larger and the players are better coached than ever at the junior level, but the number of 1st round busts and later round stars hasn't changed by much at all.
This is probably because the number one reason a first rounder bust is injuries. And that hasn't changed, and probably never will change. It's just not a predictable factor in a players development.
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I think the number one reason for busting is you're drafting a teenager not a man and you can never predict with certainty what kind of man the teenager will grow into. All young players need to improve, overcome adversity, sustain confidence in themselves through trying times, etc. But how do you measure a person's ability to improve? How do you measure their determination? How do you measure their belief in themselves? How do you measure the ability to stay focused and not get distracted by drugs, fame and partying? A huge amount of whether a young player will achieve his full potential is psychological. Scouts try to talk to coaches, parents, and teammates to gauge some of these psychological factors. Sometimes their play on the ice illuminates their character, you can see Bennett's determination, will to succeed, relentless pursuit of the puck. His on ice actions show the type of character that will succeed and is likely to hit his potential. This is why you may see Flames management and scouts talk about trying to find prospects who exhibit high levels of compete, determination, work ethic, consistency, passion for the game, etc. All the skill in the world can fail without those qualities (see Daigle.)
I think the psychological factors that are hard to gauge are the biggest reason why scouting is the crapshoot it is and likely always will be. Luckily our scouts take it into account and aren't just drafting the most purely skilled player.