Quote:
Originally Posted by Nehkara
Do you think that would generate enough momentum for Sanders to win the nomination?
(Yes, I know delegates make the nominee not momentum but they may go hand in hand.)
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Don't frame it in terms of "wins".
Here's the cold hard facts... Sanders will need to win about 58 percent of the remaining elected delegates to
tie Clinton. Since the Democrats allocate delegates proportionally, that means he’d need to win about 58 percent of the vote in the remaining states, meaning he’d need to beat Clinton by a 16 point margin the rest of the way. You have her winning Maryland and Delaware so let's bump his required margin up to 60% of remaining delegates for the other states... so he'd basically have to beat her by 20 points in all those contests (including the state in which she was the senator, and Arizona where as of yesterday she was up 26 points points in a poll voting next week)... and that basically just gets him into a tie. Sanders doesn't need just "wins" he needs massive wins everywhere.
Clinton is further ahead of Sanders then Obama was ahead of Clinton at this point in 2008. Sanders is not going to win. It's effectively over.