Huge day today (even that is an understatement). Likely that Trump picks up NC and Florida. If Trump gets Florida & Ohio, I imagine Kasich and Rubio will back out (only way to stop Trump at that point).
But if Kasich holds Ohio, then we are likely heading to a contested convention and you might see all 4 stay in the race till then. Trump will amass the most delegates, but below the 1,237 needed. He will argue he should be the nominee, and chaos will ensue after the 1st ballot at the convention when a tonne of delegates become unbound. Trump will lose after multiple ballots, and will claim he had majority of delegates going in and should have been nominee, and will run as a 3rd party candidate, and Hillary will win the general.
Ohio today will be interesting. Trump has generally underperformed his polling in caucuses, and overperformed in open primaries. (Closed primaries generally end up closest to polling, given that is generally the polling sample). Ohio is both open and a primary so honestly could go either way. Momentum is with Kasich though. Cruz pushing hard in both states certainly helped no one but Trump.
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