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Originally Posted by PeteMoss
In all honesty this boils down to the same conversation about prospects that always happens here. There's the optimistic group (Enoch/FDW and probably others) and then the pessimistic group.
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Can there not simply be a "each individual case should be treated individually" group that sees that Ferland possesses NHL skills that other, more productive players do not even possess?
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On the whole though - the pessimists are right more often than not when it comes to prospects.
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No, they aren't. They're just co-incidentally closer to the general overarching percentages. Which, again, fail to treat individual cases
as individual cases.
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A plateau or drop-off is a huge red-flag of the guy becoming anything more than a 3rd/4th line guy. Particularly when the player is 23 years old.
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Who plateaued, and when? The guy who sprained his ACL this season and then later had a concussion? Or the guy who's about to play his 82nd career NHL game tonight, having put in a pretty respectable 6-12-17 stat line in those 81 games almost entirely in a checking role?
I believe Ferland has more upside. Maybe he tops out as a 35 point forward which isn't exactly a first line guy, but that'd be an upward progression from where he's at right now. With his general skillset that means he'd be a very useful player.
I will finish this post by stating this:
Martin St. Louis had 4G 16A in 69 games as a Flame. Same age as Ferland. We don't need Ferland to become MSL for him to have not plateaued.