Quote:
Originally Posted by Henry Fool
I totally fail to see it. There's a wealth of knowledge and experience with respect to how a certain type of player with certain stats projects. You don't need to calculate a theoretical model to predict his exact numbers in his rookie year.
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This is why you fail to see it.
It isn't about predicting a player's numbers in his rookie year. It's about making stats comparable between feeder leagues.
Is an 80-point season in the OHL better or worse than 40 points on an NCAA Div 1 team? Is a 22-year-old with 40 points in the AHL more or less likely to be NHL-ready than a 22-year-old with 30 points in Sweden? These are the kinds of questions NHLe is supposed to help you answer.
Incidentally, there is no theoretical model. It's just a matter of adding up all the point production of all the players who graduated from league X to the NHL, both their last year in league X and their first year in the NHL, and calculating the ratio between them. Nothing sophisticated about it, but it helps you gauge roughly how many firkins equal one hogshead.