Quote:
Originally Posted by PeteMoss
Yes - that is prior to all lotteries. Once one has happened, the probabilities change. If the Leafs finish last and win the lottery, the Flames chances of getting the 2nd pick are higher than if Devils win the initial lottery and pick 1st.
EDIT: To clarify - those are the correct probabilities today.
|
No, you're still missing what it is.
These are not the lottery odds as of round one.
They are the full set of lottery odds for the three rounds (which includes the fact that a team's odds go up in round two if they didn't win round one)
MULTIPLIED by the current chances of where each team finishes (according to sportsclubstats).
If you go to that site, you will see that the Flames currently have an XX% chance of finshing 30th, a YY% chance of finishing 29th, a ZZ% chance of finishing 28th, etc.
So the spreadsheet in question takes the lottery odds and redistributes them, based on the likelihood of each team finishing in various positions.
So the chances of the Flames winning the first round of the lottery (according to this spreadsheet) are the chances of them finishing 30th X 20%, PLUS the chances of them finishing 29th X 13.5%, PLUS the chances of them finishing 28th X 11.5%, etc.
Then the 2nd round is recalculated, factoring the results of the first round.