Predictions for today?
Hawaii, Idaho, Mississippi, and Michigan go on the Republican side, while just the latter two go on the Democrat side.
Hawaii has had zero polls this cycle, Idaho just one, Mississippi two.
Hawaii did go strongly establishment last time around so I'd expect Rubio to do okay there. Trump's message tends to do better in economically struggling states, and Hawaii seems relatively strong.
Idaho went establishment as well, but it's difficult to parse out how much of that was a local advantage for Romney. I think Trump fits the state's independent streak, while Cruz probably appeals strongest amongst the LDS population. Given that it's closed, I expect a narrow race between Cruz and Trump. I'm going to predict Cruz with the upset here.
In Mississippi Trump polled well in the one recent poll and it seems like an ideological fit for him, although after how close Louisiana was, this could be similarly close. Unlike Louisiana, this is an open primary, so I think Trump probably wins by a solid 10 point margin.
Michigan is where most of the polling in the last week has been, so we've got a better picture there than anywhere else, and that picture is of Trump starting with a wide lead, Kasich with huge momentum (up 15 points in RCP's aggregate in less than a week), but still well behind Trump's numbers.
Ultimately Mississippi and Michigan will get the most attention because they are the largest contests. Certainly, they will give us a look at whether Trump's having trouble building any momentum. But I think the fact that they are open primaries is a major factor in parsing their meaning: after today only 4 states have fully open contests. Another 8 have semi-closed, and 16 have fully closed contests. Trump still needs to show he can win (or at least beat expectations) in closed events.
|