Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch Root
Why does it have to be one or the other? That seems like a false dichotomy to me.
I don't think anyone is looking for it to go straight up to $60 or anything.
But the one-way train to hell seems to have run its course as well.
There is so much going on right now, with currencies rebounding, other commodities rebounding, and emerging markets rebounding. I am not looking for sunshine and rainbows here, but there appears to be a lot more at play than some dead-cat, short-covering bounce.
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You could very well be right and Oil has bottomed.
Merely pointing out fundamentals have not changed as has been posted here. If you subscribe to the point of view that the OPEC production freeze, at levels that are fundamentally too high for current world demand with historically high inventory levels, will prop oil to higher levels then so be it, could happen who really knows.
I am suggesting they haven't gone this far to save everyone now. They were trying to stem its further decline, and as suggested stabilize the market. Very likely what that means is $25 could be the floor, what makes you think we are done at those levels? I am inclined to believe we are range bound, $25 to $40 per barrel for some time until we see significant non-opec declines and inventories reverse course to more normal levels.
They want max pain, doubt they are done yet.