There is a huge (yyyuge) difference between 1-2% production growth out of the US and a 1-2% production decline. That is massive. That in itself is a change in fundamentals and like I said it's probably just the beginning, with major US producers projecting huge declines. Market is already priced in the Iran production coming in. Yes OPEC is politicking back and forth but the point is that they're starting a process to support the market and they're currently operating very close to max capacity. I've posted similar things in this thread for a while now, as all you see in mainstream media is doom gloom and depression, and they are historically well behind the smart money, just like sell side analysts usually are. When Goldman posts a sub $20 WTI call, it's a great contrarian indicator to get long.
Like Enoch said above "short covering/short squeeze" is very shallow analysis. There's lots actually pointing to hedgies and other major investors are now actually piling into the long side of the trade, there's not much left to squeeze here.
Anyways we can agree to disagree, because we can't really "prove" anything as to how sustainable the recent rally is or the cause of it. I'll just leave this here though, coincidentally Pelletier just put this out. Like I've said before in this thread, he's usually ahead of the game and he's not a perma bull by any means. He was pounding the drum on a pending collapse in mid 2014. Fundamentals are changing
http://business.financialpost.com/in...nd-is-for-real