Quote:
Originally Posted by heep223
There most certainly is a change in fundamentals. Non-OPEC production isn't just slowing - it's now showing a persistent declining trend and it's just the beginning. You now have major U.S. producers forecasting double digit production declines for the year 2016.
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You have the OPEC countries, not including Iran, and one non-opec country, Russia, that "may" join a production growth "freeze" at current levels. A freeze at current levels of overproduction estimated at anywhere from 1.5 to 2.5 million barrels per day more than the market needs. This on the backdrop of Iran coming to market with crude that has been off line - what in that scenario changes fundamentals?
Production in the USA is relatively flat or down less than 2% over the past 4 months.
Inventories are at historic highs, a build in API stocks in the USA of over 10.0 million barrels last week.
What fundamentals have changed?