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Old 03-07-2016, 01:41 PM   #4338
octothorp
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So Rubio's florida prospects just got a big boost in a Monmouth poll that has him trailing Trump by 8, and at 30% is the best he's ever polled in Florida. It's not so different as other recent polls as to be dismissed as an outlier, as he's been polling in the mid to high 20s since Bush dropped out.
Significantly, the poll was in the field entirely after Super Tuesday, so it suggests that Rubio's awful performance in those primaries isn't hurting him in Florida, even if he's bleeding support to Kasich and Cruz everywhere else in the country. Add a closed primary and a potential ground-game advantage (which Rubio hasn't had anywhere other than PR, but if he's got any ground game it has to be in Florida), and it looks like a pretty tight race there.

Edit: Diving into the numbers a little more, Rubio has a huge edge in people who have already cast their vote in early voting, which may put a damper on the significance of the 'in the field' dates. However, it's still a very good poll for Rubio if Trump's typical poor performance amongst late-deciders comes to fruition.

Last edited by octothorp; 03-07-2016 at 02:16 PM.
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