Quote:
Originally Posted by getbak
Yes, the odds will change after the first lottery, but you can still calculate the overall odds of every possible outcome taking place beforehand.
Here are the initial odds for the first overall pick:[*]14.38%[*]13.29%[*]0.00%[*]12.71%[*]12.57%[*]12.43%[*]12.30%[*]12.23%[*]12.11%[*]11.92%[*]11.86%[*]11.79%
So, yes the odds change as more information becomes available, but you can still use the initial odds to calculate the possibility of every outcome happening and then determine how many times each team is likely to pick in any specific spot depending on all of those outcomes.
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So pretty much 50% of the time we'll get first every time.