Quote:
Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher
Some notes about the draft odds. Some of these websites aren't calculating them very well. For example lets say the worst team in the league wins the #1 pick which is the most likely outcome (20% chance). This alters the percentages for the next lottery. If the worst team wins (TOR in my example from todays standings) then the following percentages are in affect for the 2nd lottery:
EDM: 16.88%
CGY: 14.38%
WPG: 11.88%
BUF: 10.63%
ARI: 9.38%
VAN: 8.13%
CBJ: 7.5%
MTL: 6.25%
OTT: 4.38%
CAR: 3.75%
COL: 3.13%
NJ: 2.5%
PHI: 1.25%
Now compare those to what http://www.tankathon.com/nhl/pick_odds thinks our % chance should be.
If TOR wins we actually have a 14.38% chance of winning the 2nd lottery not the 11.4% tankathon says.
Now lets say EDM wins the 2nd lottery with the 16.88% chance. Then we'd have a 17.29% chance of winning the 3rd lottery not the 11.3% chance that tankathon says. Of course I'm giving the examples that end up giving us the highest chance just to show the disparity. The average result will be somewhere in the middle. But we should realize these tankathon odds are not calculated with everything in mind.
So if we did finish 3rd last we'd have a chance of picking top 3 somewhere between 43.17% and 34.8%. Not the 34.2% they say. |
Has anyone come across a properly done percentage table that considers all combinations? I started working on a spreadsheet and have gotten the proper percentages for picks 1 and 2 but can't quite get #3 right because it involves a 3 dimensional matrix. I'm close, but can't quite get it to resolve. Will post it if I can get it right.