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driveway · 03-06-2016, 02:30 AM

The season has not been kind to the Flames. There is debate about exactly the causes of this, the most commonly cited culprits are, in no particular order: Goaltending, Coaching, Personnel, and Special Teams.

I personally can't think of a good way to settle the debate, but I thought taking a specific look at the Penalty Kill might help in the argument between Coaching and Goaltending. I think this is a good measure because success on the PK depends on the interplay between a system (coaching) and good goaltending.

On the face of it, the Flames have an objectively terrible PK. League-worst 73.7%, league-worst shorthanded save percentage .825. Looks like goaltending may be the culprit, but if we dig a little deeper, we might find something else.

The Flames are very good at staying out of the penalty box. There has been something of a change in this trend since the Wideman incident, but overall the Flames have only been shorthanded 179 times this season, this is the 4th least amount of times. However, our abysmal performance has led to us allowing the 4th most total goals.

Our low-number of penalties has led to an overall relatively low number of shots against. We've faced the 5th least total shots on the PK, and the 6th least shot-attempts (corsi). This is in-line with expectations based on our 4th lowest number of times shorthanded. This leads me to believe that our struggle has less to do with our PK system and again, seems to point to poor goaltending.

However, this view changes a little if you look at Scoring Chances and High Danger Scoring Chances Against (per War-on-Ice). We're only 15th in suppressing Scoring Chances and we have allowed the 5th most High-Danger Scoring Chances against total, despite the relatively low number of total shooting attempts we've faced on the PK. It is also called into question if we look at SA/60 where the Flames allow the 8th most SA per 60 minutes of PK time. It's starting to look less like we're getting particularly bad goaltending on the PK and a little more like we're not executing an effective PK system.

So far, these stats don't seem to be clarifying the picture a lot. There seems to be argument either way: In total, the Flames have faced a number of shots in line with their PK time, pointing to bad goaltending; but those shots seem to be of an inordinately high quality, pointing to a bad system.

Taking the goalies as individuals, however, something does emerge. Namely the utter catastrophe that has been Jonas Hiller. Considering that all three of our goalies have had exactly the same players playing exactly the same system in front of them, large differences in performance can, I think, be safely attributed to the individual.

Shorthanded, Ramo has faces 121 shots, Ortio 33, and Hiller 103. Ramo and Ortio have posted .860 and .851 save percentages. Both of these numbers are better than the Flames' team save percentage of .825. These numbers are not great, but they aren't terrible. They're better than Dubnyk (.833), Lundkvist (.835), and Rinne (.836). Split the difference and the Flames have a .856 save percentage on the PK. This would tie us with Winnipeg for 20th in the league, would drop our Goals-Against from 45 to 37, and raise our overall PK numbers from 73.7% to 79.2% and we'd be 22nd instead of 30th.

So what happened?

Jonas ####ing Hiller happened.

He's allowed 23 goals on 103 shots for a save-percentage of .777. .777! Only Garrett Sparks and Andrew Hammond are worse and they've faced an identical number of shots combined as Hiller has. Hiller is particularly atrocious with what war-on-ice terms "medium danger shots". On these shots, Ortio has a .868 and Ramo a .925. They both have better numbers than their overall save percentage. On medium-danger-shots Hiller has a .708. .708!! Are you kidding me? Only Hammond is worse in the entire NHL. Switch Hiller for Ortio on these shots alone and you prevent 4 goals and lift our PK out of the basement to merely 4th worst.

To sum up: our PK has problems. The horribleness of our PP lends support to the notion that there is a general problem with either our systems or our overall personnel. However, it has become clear to me that the specific struggles of our PK, the overall putrid nature of our shorthanded numbers, can be laid directly and unquestionably at the door of one Jonas Hiller. Singlehandedly he has sunk a below-average PK into the absolute sewer. His tremendously miserable performance behind exactly the same team as Ramo and Ortio gives me confidence saying that he can be held directly responsible for at least 3 missed points in the standings. Games like Feb 15th where we lost 6-4 to Anaheim and Hiller let in 3 PK goals on 7 shots. Or October 13th against the Blues where we lost 4-3 and Hiller let in 1PK goal on 1 shot.

Now, perhaps you want to thank Mr. Hiller for sinking us to the bottom of the league and improving our draft position. Others - myself included - would question the coaching staff who would throw this bag of hammers out onto the ice over and over again, but I will say that is has altered my overall position on the coaching staff. I was personally leaning towards replacing them all this offseason. However, taking a look at these numbers makes me want to give them another crack at it and hope they play some goaltenders who aren't as miserably bad as a Wile E. Coyote rocket-skate meal plan.

Jonas Hiller: The Living Worst.

03-06-2016, 02:30 AM	#1
driveway A Fiddler Crab Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Chicago Exp:	The PK: Coaching vs. Goaltending The season has not been kind to the Flames. There is debate about exactly the causes of this, the most commonly cited culprits are, in no particular order: Goaltending, Coaching, Personnel, and Special Teams. I personally can't think of a good way to settle the debate, but I thought taking a specific look at the Penalty Kill might help in the argument between Coaching and Goaltending. I think this is a good measure because success on the PK depends on the interplay between a system (coaching) and good goaltending. On the face of it, the Flames have an objectively terrible PK. League-worst 73.7%, league-worst shorthanded save percentage .825. Looks like goaltending may be the culprit, but if we dig a little deeper, we might find something else. The Flames are very good at staying out of the penalty box. There has been something of a change in this trend since the Wideman incident, but overall the Flames have only been shorthanded 179 times this season, this is the 4th least amount of times. However, our abysmal performance has led to us allowing the 4th most total goals. Our low-number of penalties has led to an overall relatively low number of shots against. We've faced the 5th least total shots on the PK, and the 6th least shot-attempts (corsi). This is in-line with expectations based on our 4th lowest number of times shorthanded. This leads me to believe that our struggle has less to do with our PK system and again, seems to point to poor goaltending. However, this view changes a little if you look at Scoring Chances and High Danger Scoring Chances Against (per War-on-Ice). We're only 15th in suppressing Scoring Chances and we have allowed the 5th most High-Danger Scoring Chances against total, despite the relatively low number of total shooting attempts we've faced on the PK. It is also called into question if we look at SA/60 where the Flames allow the 8th most SA per 60 minutes of PK time. It's starting to look less like we're getting particularly bad goaltending on the PK and a little more like we're not executing an effective PK system. So far, these stats don't seem to be clarifying the picture a lot. There seems to be argument either way: In total, the Flames have faced a number of shots in line with their PK time, pointing to bad goaltending; but those shots seem to be of an inordinately high quality, pointing to a bad system. Taking the goalies as individuals, however, something does emerge. Namely the utter catastrophe that has been Jonas Hiller. Considering that all three of our goalies have had exactly the same players playing exactly the same system in front of them, large differences in performance can, I think, be safely attributed to the individual. Shorthanded, Ramo has faces 121 shots, Ortio 33, and Hiller 103. Ramo and Ortio have posted .860 and .851 save percentages. Both of these numbers are better than the Flames' team save percentage of .825. These numbers are not great, but they aren't terrible. They're better than Dubnyk (.833), Lundkvist (.835), and Rinne (.836). Split the difference and the Flames have a .856 save percentage on the PK. This would tie us with Winnipeg for 20th in the league, would drop our Goals-Against from 45 to 37, and raise our overall PK numbers from 73.7% to 79.2% and we'd be 22nd instead of 30th. So what happened? Jonas ####ing Hiller happened. He's allowed 23 goals on 103 shots for a save-percentage of .777. .777! Only Garrett Sparks and Andrew Hammond are worse and they've faced an identical number of shots combined as Hiller has. Hiller is particularly atrocious with what war-on-ice terms "medium danger shots". On these shots, Ortio has a .868 and Ramo a .925. They both have better numbers than their overall save percentage. On medium-danger-shots Hiller has a .708. .708!! Are you kidding me? Only Hammond is worse in the entire NHL. Switch Hiller for Ortio on these shots alone and you prevent 4 goals and lift our PK out of the basement to merely 4th worst. To sum up: our PK has problems. The horribleness of our PP lends support to the notion that there is a general problem with either our systems or our overall personnel. However, it has become clear to me that the specific struggles of our PK, the overall putrid nature of our shorthanded numbers, can be laid directly and unquestionably at the door of one Jonas Hiller. Singlehandedly he has sunk a below-average PK into the absolute sewer. His tremendously miserable performance behind exactly the same team as Ramo and Ortio gives me confidence saying that he can be held directly responsible for at least 3 missed points in the standings. Games like Feb 15th where we lost 6-4 to Anaheim and Hiller let in 3 PK goals on 7 shots. Or October 13th against the Blues where we lost 4-3 and Hiller let in 1PK goal on 1 shot. Now, perhaps you want to thank Mr. Hiller for sinking us to the bottom of the league and improving our draft position. Others - myself included - would question the coaching staff who would throw this bag of hammers out onto the ice over and over again, but I will say that is has altered my overall position on the coaching staff. I was personally leaning towards replacing them all this offseason. However, taking a look at these numbers makes me want to give them another crack at it and hope they play some goaltenders who aren't as miserably bad as a Wile E. Coyote rocket-skate meal plan. Jonas Hiller: The Living Worst.