Quote:
Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis
Well look at the GOP primary numbers. In Virginia alone it was 5 times larger this year than 2012. I think the GOP (probably driven by Trump, one way or another) base is way more excited this race, and even Bernie has proven to be a flop at bringing out the numbers for the Dems (where numbers are down across the board). You always got to like the party with the most enthusiastic supporters. And I will continue to maintain Trump has silent support at a very high level, even among Democrats, even if I can only use anecdotal evidence to prove it until November. I think a lot of "I'm not a racist but" types exist out there that will, well, be racists on election day.
I think the traditional political approach here has pretty much been consistently wrong in this race, even regarding Bernie too. I guess I'm choosing to believe this is a unique election. Maybe I'm wrong, but I've been wrong pretty much most of the race using the traditional approach, so I guess I've decide the traditional rules simply don't apply this time like they normally would.
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Virginia had a weird republican primary last time where only 2 people got on the ballot.
The republican primary had about 1 million voters turnout. There are typically about 4 million who turnout for the general pres election. Trump got 35% of the vote, so that only translates to 8.75% in a general election that have proven they'll actually vote for him. So basically he won the primary while receiving 8.75% of the vote. Virginia has proven that tea partiers and other crazies can get in on primaries. Tea partiers are good at getting people out to vote and winning elections in primaries where turnout isn't that great. But when it comes to state wide real elections, those candidates don't usually have a chance.
The lack of turnout for democrat primaries is probably due to most people being okay with Hillary as their candidate, knowing she is going to win, liking what Bernie is doing, but not really wanting him to be the candidate. The anti-Trump passion is strong on any body who even leans slightly left, and I"m sure they'll turnout well in the general election. I'd suspect there are a fair number of Republicans who won't turnout if Hillary and Donald are the only choices. The only way Donald vs Hillary is close is if Hillary does something really stupid or some other large scandal comes up, or if she gets arrested I guess!