Quote:
Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis
Well look at the GOP primary numbers. In Virginia alone it was 5 times larger this year than 2012. I think the GOP (probably driven by Trump, one way or another) base is way more excited this race, and even Bernie has proven to be a flop at bringing out the numbers for the Dems (where numbers are down across the board). You always got to like the party with the most enthusiastic supporters. And I will continue to maintain Trump has silent support at a very high level, even among Democrats, even if I can only use anecdotal evidence to prove it until November. I think a lot of "I'm not a racist but" types exist out there that will, well, be racists on election day.
I think the traditional political approach here has pretty much been consistently wrong in this race, even regarding Bernie too. I guess I'm choosing to believe this is a unique election. Maybe I'm wrong, but I've been wrong pretty much most of the race using the traditional approach, so I guess I've decide the traditional rules simply don't apply this time like they normally would.
|
I suppose one would rather have higher than lower primary turnout... But two points on that. The first is that I'm of the view that primary turnout is primarily a function of how closely contested the primary race is, and the GOTV resources that are being directed toward them. In this case, eleven candidates are spending money on the GOP side and only two for the Dems--plus, most people don't really believe Sanders has a chance, so that race is inherently a little bit less exciting.
The other thing is that even among primary voters, Trump is still only getting 35%. Turnout is high, but some of those voters are showing up to vote against him, not for him.
There is a reason the higher-ups in the GOP are not jumping on the Trump bandwagon. They (rightly) see this as a winnable election for them against a vulnerable candidate and (in my view also rightly) feel that nominating Trump turns that winnable election into a landslide of McGovern-type proportions that risks losing them the Senate, if not the House.
Are they right? Well, only time will tell-- but Karl Rove isn't working hard to mobilize the GOP against Trump because he doesn't like his spray tan. It's because he thinks Trump will be a disaster for the party.