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Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan
Sorry to keep doing this... But where is the actual basis for your number? Trump has never done better than 35% among REPUBLICAN primary voters. He is nowhere close to having 30% of the ELECTORATE locked up.
Not to mention that you cannot win an election with 30% support. You need 50%, and you need to win the electoral college, including a handful of key states that cannot be won without significant support from certain key swing voter groups.
Let's not fall all over ourselves admiring Drumpf's strategy here. He is clearly the front runner for the nomination, but he hasn't even locked that up yet, and has major flaws that indicate he is unelectable in a general election. He is incredibly unpopular among democrats, and among non-white voters he might as well be David Duke.
I obviously-like anyone-can be wrong, and a lot of prognostications about Trump have turned out to be wrong. I also have made no secret of the fact that I don't think much of Clinton as a candidate. However, I still think the reasonable view is the one that is held by the currently-panicking GOP establishment: a Trump nomination will be a disaster for the GOP, and a godsend for an otherwise-very-vulnerable Clinton candidacy.
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Well look at the GOP primary numbers. In Virginia alone it was 5 times larger this year than 2012. I think the GOP (probably driven by Trump, one way or another) base is way more excited this race, and even Bernie has proven to be a flop at bringing out the numbers for the Dems (where numbers are down across the board). You always got to like the party with the most enthusiastic supporters. And I will continue to maintain Trump has silent support at a very high level, even among Democrats, even if I can only use anecdotal evidence to prove it until November. I think a lot of "I'm not a racist but" types exist out there that will, well, be racists on election day.
I think the traditional political approach here has pretty much been consistently wrong in this race, even regarding Bernie too. I guess I'm choosing to believe this is a unique election. Maybe I'm wrong, but I've been wrong pretty much most of the race using the traditional approach, so I guess I've decide the traditional rules simply don't apply this time like they normally would.