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Old 03-02-2016, 10:37 AM   #4067
octothorp
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One remaining hurdle for Trump is proving he can win in closed (registered republicans only) primaries and caucuses. He's 1-of-4 in fully closed contests so far (Iowa, Oklahoma, Alaska, Nevada), and the calendar is switching to a phase where there's more closed contests: 8 of the 11 contests between now and March 15 are fully closed. March 15 slightly favours open or semi-closed caucuses, and then after that the schedule shifts heavily towards closed primaries again for the rest of the competition.

Last chance for the anyone but Trump group is to hit Trump hard now, create a narrative that he's not a true republican, limit his wins in these closed caucuses (they're mostly smaller delegate counts, so it's more about the narrative than the math), and then use those losses as evidence that he's not supported by true Republicans. As the emphasis shifts toward the larger closed primaries, I think the republican-in-name-only-hijacking-the-party narrative is going to be more effective than the current make-him-look-goofy campaign.
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