I think there's an important distinction to be made in thinking that Karlsson will win the Norris because he's the best defenseman in the league, and thinking that Karlsson will win the Norris because he'll receive more votes for the award than any other defenseman.
You can acknowledge that Karlsson is almost a one dimensional defenseman while still thinking he will win the Norris, because historically the vote for the award tends to favor high scoring defensemen above all else. It's telling that Keith won the Norris in his two highest scoring seasons of his career (so far), for example.
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