[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Let's not talk as if making the playoffs once were an end in itself. That would imply the Flames rebuild ended last year.

I never said that or implied it. You made that up.

And no one did.

The assumption that all shots on goal are of equal value is built into the Corsi and Fenwick ‘stats’. The people who invented them and advocate for them specifically claim that shot quality is not a variable, because it averages out and every team in the long run gets the same quality of shots. So the minute you use Corsi or Fenwick as a measure of anything, you are accepting that assumption.

Back to my criteria
> 50% score-adjusted Corsi
> 50% scored-adjusted Fenwick
> 20th ranked PP

Here are the teams that satisfy those three criteria:
CHI (51.4 / 50.8 / 2nd)
NYI (50.9 / 50.9 / 12th)
WAS (51.6 / 51.6 / 1st)
PIT (51.8 / 51.9 / 16th)
STL (51.7 / 52.0 / 8th)
MTL (52.5 / 52.2 / 19th)
SJS (51.3 / 52.6 / 3rd)
DAL (53.6 / 53.0 / 6th)
NSH (52.9 / 54.0 / 10th)
ANA (53.6 / 54.2 / 4th)
LAK ( 56.7 / 56.1 / 5th)

Which of those teams is rebuilding?

Answer: None. All of them are teams looking to plug in their roster well enough to contend for a cup. There are a pair (NSH / MTL) that have had major goaltending issues, but goaltending is something you fill without being using being a rebuilding team as an excuse. Bold, btw, are playoff teams. THat's 10 of 11. And the Habs were 1st in the league before Price went down.

Six of 16 playoff teams do not meet your criteria. That suggests that your criteria are highly susceptible to false negatives.

The end goal isn't a stat. But when there are stats highly correllated with being a good playoff team, you have to fulfill those baseline criteria before you can start tweaking.

That's nice. You haven't shown a high correlation. Again, 37.5% of this year's playoff teams do not meet your supposed baseline criteria.