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Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher
I dunno I guess we just have to dive into the Corsi debate full on don't we? 
It's a stat inherently biased against defensive defensemen IMO. Coaches utilize certain players in defensive situations more than offensive situations. If I put someone out against Getzlaf and Perry then there's a decent chance they'll spend that shift in their own zone defending because Getzlaf and Perry are excellent at maintaing possession. Does that mean the players we put out against them suck? Not necessarily. If I put out Russell and Engelland vs them, are Getzlaf/Perry going to get a lot of shots or shot attempts? Probably they will. But if they didn't score then the defensive defensemen did their job despite looking bad in terms of shot attempts for/against. If Russell blocks a shot that was going in, he saved a frickin goal.
Shots are a terrible metric for analzying a game. I'm sure we've all seen games where one team outshot the other but the prime scoring chances were actually in favour of the other team. Not every shot is the same. A shot from slot is a much more prime scoring chance than a shot from the boards. A shot off a rebound is the most likely type of shot to go in.
Corsi flat out sucks. It doesn't tell us what people tell us it tells us. These stats need to get a lot better at evaluating the things that really matter before I put much stock into them at all.
Maybe I'm an idiot and the fancy stats crowd can illuminate me about how these stats are better than they appear to be. I'd be interested to hear. |
I agree Corsi on its own can be very misleading. I'm by no means an expert in advanced stats but for me, it does provide a some value if you have a table outlining Corsi, Quality of Competition, and Offensive Zone Start Shift (%) all together. With those measures tracked, you gain some insight into what you describe. Who does the coach trust against the hardest competition or the toughest competition?
If a defensive defenseman has a low Corsi but plays tough minutes, you can explain it away. But if you have a low Corsi despite starting the majority of your shifts in the opponent's end against weak competition, it's probably a sign the player isn't doing too well...whether you're skeptical that shots are the ideal measure or not.