Quote:
Originally Posted by octothorp
What you posted was in the Florida (registered republican only) primary. How about something showing how his favorability is doing with independents?
|
So, if you looked at numbers back in August, you would see that Trump had almost no extraneous non-partisan support when compared to the two other forerunners. Now, he has pulled equal with Cruz.
So, as you said, we have no idea how Trump will match up with a Democrat nominee, and how that match-up will affect independent choice, and partisan cross-over. The best evidence we have now is Trump's steady erosion of voter bases that his opponents used to count on: Cruz and evangelicals, Rubio and Latinos, Rubio and women.
This primary cycle is pretty notable for the rapid fluctuation in voter stance. Only 2 months ago, Ben Carson had the highest favourability rating among Republicans and Independents (by far), and John Kasich was the most popular Republican candidate among Democrats. Sorry, where are those two candidates now.
A lot of people said that Trump was a high floor, low ceiling candidate. That still may be true. However, I like what Nate Silver said best the other day: Trump is the knuckleball candidate - just like in baseball, all you need is a bunch of pitchers that have generally the same style, and batters learn to hit on that style. Throw in one aberration, and that pitcher becomes incredibly successful.
Trump at this stage seems to be shedding his aberration status, and is clearly being taken seriously by the Republican establishment - as last night showed.
To go back to my previous post on Trump's cross-over appeal, I really think that you will start seeing his messaging, which is being tailored to the lower-half of the voter socioeconomic spectrum, take hold.