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Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis
To be fair his model has been correct 96% of the time (25/26). So it could be flawed for sure, but his overall accuracy with the model is pretty good.
It's February and Bernie has more or less skated so far when it comes to being harshly attacked. Once that starts I think he's in trouble. His polling numbers outside of young people (obviously the least reliable voting block there is) are not that great either. Plus there's that fact he's gonna struggle to win more than 10 more states between now and the Dem convention. He's still very unlikely to be the nominee.
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I'm not arguing whether it's a good model, but if it relies on primary results it cannot be accurate now, as we have only had three primaries.
There is no way the primaries of Nevada New Hampshire and South Carolina can predict anything other than their own states, at least he'd need 2/3rds of the primaries to have any chance of applying his model to a national result.