Quote:
Originally Posted by afc wimbledon
I'd probably have more faith in a model that relies on primary results if all the primaries had actually been held instead of the four(?) out of fifty one we've had so far.
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All that model is using is a predictive sample based across time. The degree of accuracy shows that it works, but I am not totally sure how he estimates political spirit or the political cycle or whatever. Just Democrat to Republican President or something?
One that thing that Vlad has made very clear is how fresh the ground is that we are walking on. Basically, anything is possible at this point. The world has changed so much in 8 years.