Quote:
Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis
I can't find the poll right now, but it was an Elon University poll that had Trump slightly ahead of both of them. But you show that RCP aggregate from about 5 months ago and Trump was only 5 points behind. In that time it's pretty much indisputable that Trump has gone up and Hillary has gone down. Michigan is definitely going to be in play for Trump.
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It's certainly possible that such a poll could exist, but it's not showing up on the Elon University Polling website, or on any poll aggregators I can find.
http://www.elon.edu/e-web/elonpoll/fullarchive.xhtml
Personally, I'd be skeptical of a Michigan poll from Elon, given that they say that they're area of interest is in polling North Carolina and other southern states. Do they have the experience and knowledge to do a meaningful Michigan poll?
Of course I'm also skeptical of four month old polls like those I linked to from RCP.
I'd be equally skeptical of any sort of extrapolation along the lines of "it was a certain margin in state polls several months ago, and national favorability ratings have moved since then, therefore the state poll would now have moved a significant amount in a certain direction." It's just not good use of polling data. Especially given that Trump's favorability ratings have really stayed largely the same at a national level, and internally are becoming better with Republicans and worse with independents and Democrats.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...ection-voters/
Hopefully with Michigan's primary a couple weeks away, we'll get some useful data from the great lakes state. Until then, like I say, I'm skeptical. (But open to seeing a convincing argument to the contrary.)