Quote:
Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan
No, I think you are underestimating the size of the Latino vote in places like Colorado. Even Michigan has a significant Latino population.
Plus, Trump really can't win Florida without the Latino vote. Bush had significant support among Cuban-Americans, and STILL only won Florida by a few hundred votes.
I'm interested in seeing how you think the electoral math works for Trump. I am just not seeing it.
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I'm simply looking at the 2012 map and trying to see what could change. Colorado for instance was a Democratic state in 2012, so the fact Hispanics there won't vote for Trump doesn't matter that much. I look at what Romney won, and cannot see Trump losing any of those states. At best you could maybe argue Missouri and maybe North Carolina could break to the Democrats, but I view both of those as unlikely.
So just holding the Romney states, Trump is at around 210. I think he's found the right demographics to target in Ohio and Michigan (working class/unemployed/underemployed workers), and I think he can win both of those. That puts him around 245-250. So if he can flip Florida too, he's won. I agree getting Florida isn't easy, but I'm not sure what Hillary or Bernie offer to Floridians that will help either of them win Florida. We could be looking at 2000 redux where Florida decides it all. Given Florida's propensity for utter idiocy, I'm not liking that set up.