Quote:
Originally Posted by Vulcan
There are 30 delegates at stake given out on a proportional basis but the big news for me is Trump has gotten into the 40+% territory. I think it may be over.
|
I'm not sure that this is actually big news. Polling had Nevada as one of Trump's top two states. (Morning Consult, for example, had Trump at 48% in Nevada, and still around 36% nationally). This might look like momentum because it's his highest yet, but it's more likely that Nevada's just really favorable to him and he would have won by a similar margin regardless of when it happened.
To me it still comes down to when we get down to what is effectively a 1-on-1 battle. If that happens before March 15, I think Rubio is in good shape. After March 15, and his margin shrinks rapidly. Thing is, I really don't see any of the other 3 candidates having significant motivation to drop out.
There are a lot of interesting races for March 1. In fact, every race that has had polling, (except for a Trump runaway lead in Massachusetts), looks to be closer than any state thus far, other than Iowa.
I'd be really curious to know where Trump is spending his money, because I think the smart option for him is to not challenge Cruz right now, try to set up Cruz to win a few states on March 1st, and thus stay in the race longer. For Rubio, obviously his own best result is winning as many states as possible, but his second-best outcome is probably Trump beating Cruz everywhere else.