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Old 02-24-2016, 10:44 AM   #3783
octothorp
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vulcan View Post

There are 30 delegates at stake given out on a proportional basis but the big news for me is Trump has gotten into the 40+% territory. I think it may be over.
I'm not sure that this is actually big news. Polling had Nevada as one of Trump's top two states. (Morning Consult, for example, had Trump at 48% in Nevada, and still around 36% nationally). This might look like momentum because it's his highest yet, but it's more likely that Nevada's just really favorable to him and he would have won by a similar margin regardless of when it happened.

To me it still comes down to when we get down to what is effectively a 1-on-1 battle. If that happens before March 15, I think Rubio is in good shape. After March 15, and his margin shrinks rapidly. Thing is, I really don't see any of the other 3 candidates having significant motivation to drop out.

There are a lot of interesting races for March 1. In fact, every race that has had polling, (except for a Trump runaway lead in Massachusetts), looks to be closer than any state thus far, other than Iowa.

I'd be really curious to know where Trump is spending his money, because I think the smart option for him is to not challenge Cruz right now, try to set up Cruz to win a few states on March 1st, and thus stay in the race longer. For Rubio, obviously his own best result is winning as many states as possible, but his second-best outcome is probably Trump beating Cruz everywhere else.
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