Quote:
Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis
I think you could reasonably conclude the majority of Kasich and Bush supporters will eventually go to Rubio, and the majority of Carson supporters to Trump. That puts them both at around 40% with Trump slightly ahead. So it will probably come down to how the Cruz supporters break, but also when Cruz gets out, to see if Rubio can eventually beat Trump. If Cruz is still in this after March 15, Rubio might not have the chance to win over enough voters, but Rubio also would obviously prefer Trump pushes Cruz out by going after him so he can maybe get the Cruz supporters in turn. Bookies odds right now are 50% Trump, 40% Rubio and 10% other, and that seems about right.
Also, Glenn Beck has decided to go on a fast in support of Ted Cruz. Sure, why not try and make his supporters look more sane?
|
Yeah, the timing of when people drop out is really important. I assume that Trump is going to hit the necessary popular votes to earn delegates in every state. But for Rubio and Cruz, Kasich and Carson still in the race may be the difference between 19% and 21% in some states and cost them delegates.
I'm not sure exactly what Kasich's end game is, but lets say it was to negotiate his way into a VP or cabinet post. I could see a scenario where he sticks it out to March 15 and tries to win Ohio's winner take all 66 delegates. These delegates are pledged (not bound), but they are a slate picked by the winner. So he's got a roster of people loyal to him then. When he gets the favour that he wants from Rubio, he then instructs his people to support Rubio at the RNC, and shuts down his campaign.
It's a dangerous game though, there's a serious risk of splitting the vote and handing all 66 delegates to Trump. From what I can tell, there hasn't been an Ohio poll since about September, but at the time Trump was polling at about 22%, which is significantly below many other places at the time. But I've got no idea who wins Ohio in a Trump/Kasich/Cruz/Rubio race. It could be close to a 4 way split.
Carson could have a similar plan in mind, but he's unlikely to ever get to a point where his delegates are worth making a deal for. There's a chance he withdraws after March 1, but I don't think that the field winnows further until after the 15th.