Originally Posted by Caged Great
True, but in national polling of 1 to 1's with Trump Vs Cruz and Trump Vs Rubio, the non-trump candidates won by 16%. That pretty much means if it narrows to three people if you're talking a more socially conservative state, then Cruz will likely win or it'll be close and it if it's a more progressive state then Rubio will be either first or a close 2nd.
It may just be enough for Trump not to get to the amount needed to win outright.
All of the states between now and March 12th are proportional's unless you get over 50% + 1 in some of them. With three legit candidates, nobody will get 40% in any of those ones. After that it's winner takes all. If the other two can keep it relatively close between the three of them it'll be an interesting finish. If one of them drops out at that point, which is also possible then those winner take all become even more crazy.
Of those states, 1046 delegates are up for grabs. With them likely splitting them roughly evenly it'll be fun. Trump will likely have 500ish delegates, with Cruz and Rubio both being in the 350-400 range due to splits. The winner needs over 1280.
after the winner take all states start, you have Florida, Illinois, Ohio, Wisconsin, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Rhode Island, Washington, New Mexico being possible Rubio's Missouri, North Carolina, New York, Pennsylvania, California, New Jersey being likely Trumps, and Arizona, Utah, Indiana, Oregon, South Dakota, Montana being possible Cruz. Those are guessimates because there isn't any polling there yet because they are far off. If that is how it would break down, Trump would be at 1000-1100 with both Cruz and Rubio being in the 750 ish range. None of them would hit the 1280 mark.
Trump is the favourite, but I want anyone but him being the nominee.
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