Quote:
Originally Posted by Tinordi
|
Wait... If Tesla, who everyone knows is out there trying to revolutionize the battery and car industry succeeds I don't think that's a "black swan event".
*groan* for a wiki copy and paste:
Quote:
The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight.
The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain:
The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology.
The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities).
The psychological biases that blind people, both individually and collectively, to uncertainty and to a rare event's massive role in historical affairs.
|
I don't think Tesla success would be beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance and technology.
In fact it is science, finance and technology combined that will one day end world reliance on oil.