I think he'll definitely be here to start next year regardless of what happens the next couple months.
As others said, no coach can really overcome replacement level goaltending (or worse). What are you supposed to do when most other teams' backup goalies would be better options than your starter? The Flames are dead last in save percentage.
Every 4-goal change in differential is worth about 1.5 points in the standings. With a league-average starter, the Flames are right in the wild card mix. With a starter in the 8-12 range, the Flames are competing with the Sharks and Ducks.
That said, while every decision last season seemed to work, there has been some dubious choices this season that have backfired:
- Losing a good do-it-all utility player like Byron for free to juggle three bad goalies. This obviously won't happen again but what a ridiculous situation.
- Love affairs - which all coaches are guilty of to an extent - with players like Colborne and Russell. Hand fed golden opportunities yet delivering poor results. Next season these types of players need a shorter leash.
- Related to the above, hesitation to play other players despite good results. Bennett, Backlund, Jooris, Frolik usually deliver yet were held back for so long for some reason.
- Brandon Bollig period. I was on board with his experiment but it become evident early on I and others underestimated the effect of playing on the Blackhawks. Semi-useful with them, useless with us and takes poor penalties to make it worse.
- Special team:
I think Mr. Hartley will take a look back and learn from a season where so many things went wrong.