Quote:
Originally Posted by Caged Great
It's interesting what the potential fallout of obstruction would be for the Republicans in the fall.
34 senate seats are up for grabs, 10 are Democrats, 24 are republicans that came in the tea party wave. Only two of the Dems seats are up for grabs, the rest are extremely safe seats.
It is already very likely that the Democrats take over the senate regardless. If the Republicans do not go through with the whole process for finding a replacement for Scalia, they will get hammered hard by any Dems running in those elections and it may end up as a filibuster proof majority for them in the Senate. That's why I think they will eventually go along with it otherwise they are going to be destroyed, perhaps even more than they were going to be anyway.
|
Yeah, I think it's going to increase the stakes on both sides, but that probably favors the Democrats simply because they tend to benefit from increases in turnout more. If the Democrats are able to convince the black and latino communities that the the vacant supreme court seat makes their participation all the more important (for social justice and immigration policies), that potentially gives them the inside track on senate seats in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Florida, Nevada, and Colorado. Of course, there are Republican special interest groups (pro-life, pro-gun) that will also be riled up by the vacancy, but these groups tend to already vote in high numbers, so there isn't the same upside as there is for the Democrats.