Quote:
Originally Posted by Tinordi
...if the great recession happened three years earlier.
The peak is in 2005 and decline since then. There is clearly some structural adjustments going on in the mid-2000s and exacerbated by the recessions.
GDP now is higher than 2007 but gasoline demand has not rebounded. Even with low prices.
Why? The answers are around us. Energy efficient and alternative fuel cars. Surging public transit investment and ridership. Dreaded bike lanes. Urbanization.
Needless to say, this trend will be monitored closely.
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American consumption of oil steadily declined from 2005 through 2012 (from 20,802 Mbbl/d to 18,490 Mbbl/d). However, demand for oil increased in both 2013 and 2014 to 19,035 Mbbl/d (source: BP statistical review of energy, 2015), and is expected to show an increase of ~500,000 bbl/d to ~19,500 Mbbl/d in 2015 (source: IEA January 2016 Oil Market Report).
I think you should check your numbers. Also, you assume that the majority of the world's population can afford alternative energy solutions.
The trend of alternative fuels and energy efficient cars, houses, etc. are great, for those that can afford them; the vast majority of the world's population can't. Moving out of third world poverty and towards a first world society requires substantial sources of cheap energy. There are very few sources of energy in the world as cheap or as efficient as oil.
China and India are undergoing a massive shift towards modernizing their economies, they also conveniently have combined populations of >2.6Bn people. Demand for energy in those countries is only going to increase, which means continued growth in the demand for oil. Although it would appear that demand for oil in America has also been increasing for the last few years, bike lanes and urbanization be damned.
Needless to say, this trend will be monitored closely.