[Senator Clay Davis]

Part of the reason I like Federer's chances tonight probably better than I will the rest of the year is circumstance. Australia is not Wimbledon or the US Open, Novak actually might be slightly more popular with the Aussies than Fed is. But even if Fed is more popular, it's not a massive gap like in London or New York.

I also like Federer to beat Djokovic more in a semi than a final because again of the crowd. In a final there's been an obvious sense of desperation among the Wimbledon 2014/2015 and 2015 US Open crowds. They've so badly wanted Roger to win because it was an all or nothing proposition, and I think Novak has used that negative energy against him to his advantage. In a semi there's not that same sense of everything being on the line, so I think the crowd is significantly tamer than the last 3 GS meetings between them, and that hurts Novak because he won't be able to channel that. And then there's Roger himself, who will probably feel less pressure in a semi than he would a final.

Roger still needs to play probably close to the level he did against Andy in the Wimbledon SF last year to do it. But we know he can, the question of course is can he do it when he needs it?