Quote:
Originally Posted by Tinordi
I think OECD countries have already peaked or will peak in the next 2 years. Globally, the peak very much depends on kind of infrastructure investment in China and India. Probably 2030.
The key indicator to watch for is EV sales, right now they're 0.6% of total sales in the U.S. The velocity of that increase will matter greatly, if it gets to 1.2% in the next 5 years the peak in oil consumption will soon follow.
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Hrmmm, ok lets look at data...
http://electricdrive.org/index.php?h...0952/pid/20952
So we see total vehicle sales increasing about 1 million per year, and for the past 3 years electric drive sales decreasing or staying flat, so the overall percentage is actually decreasing. Some velocity!
EV's still have big challenges to overcome, probably the key being the battery, becuase that dictates a lot of the cost, range and usable vehicle life. Once one of these battery breakthroughs makes it to market, then we might see some movement. As it is, it makes very little sense for the average consumer to buy an EV.