Quote:
Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis
Now I am projecting to a degree, but the consensus is if Trump wins the first 3 primaries, it's over. Nate is now predicting Trump will win the first 3 primaries. So I suppose I am putting words in his mouth, but it's not a stretch.
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That is not the consensus at all. The reason? The first few primaries are not all or nothing awards for delegates but rather proportional. Part of the reason is that they don't want a runaway race early on in the nomination proceedings and I imagine because the GOP essentially doesn't trust some of those states to not go for an out there candidate. The all or nothing awarding states tend to lean far more to the center.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...rump-and-cruz/
But the reason that either Trump and Cruz have a chance at the nomination is because there is no GOP proven candidate the establishment can rally around. It was supposed to be Bush but he was so spectacularly disappointing. They tried to convince Romney to run again. The last one left is Rubio...and his voting patterns are extremely anti-establishment and the party doesn't really trust him anymore than Cruz or Trump even if they like him on a personal level more. And when that happens, it is difficult to see how the party can coalesce around the nominee.
And all of this ignores something that 538 mentions and has mentioned several times...the ground game. It is suspected that Trump has a weak ground game compared to Cruz and Rubio.