Quote:
Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist
No, that's simply not true. Silver never said he thought Trump wouldn't win because of metrics.
"But the reason I’ve been#especially skeptical#about Trump for most of the election cycle isn’t listed above. Nor is it because I expected Trump to spontaneously combust in national polls. Instead, I was skeptical because I assumed that influential Republicans would do almost anything they could to prevent him from being nominated."
And for the record, he's still skeptical of Trump winning the nomination
Again, I don't think you're giving the general electorate enough credit. Trump has a -70 unfavorabilty index amongst Democrat voters and - 27 amongst independents. That is favorable minus unfavorable and you're telling me he has stolen 15-20% of the Democratic vote? No he hasn't, you're making up numbers.
You're making sampling assumptions here that aren't true. Trump supporters are up to 20% self identifying as liberal. What you're missing here is that of self identifying liberals, only a small fraction of them don't absolutely loathe him. What do I mean? Trump only has support from 27% of the population right now. What percentage of his supporters are liberal is irrelevant here. Head to head polls against Hillary and Sanders have him losing my a fairly wide margin (though they don't predict much as it's too early, they give a decent look at where candidates are currently).
Firstly, that's all Romney had to do and he had better polling numbers amongst almost every demographic.
Secondly, what's my peril here? Of course Democrats are telling people to worry about a Republican nominee and manufacture fear. It serves their purpose.
Things can always change. No one can say is impossible for a Trump to win. It is improbable though
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These are all the same things over and over we've been hearing for months about Trump. To date they've consistently, and often spectacularly, been wrong. I still think far too many people think this is a sub 5% chance of happening rather than a 40% chance of happening. You are overselling the average American voter, the same American voter that consistently votes against their own best interest.
You also have to remember Hillary has skated through a very easy primary. Sanders almost appears scared to attack her. Her numbers will go down once she takes a beating, and there's a lot to go after her for. But Sanders is a very easy candidate to run against too. That's another thing people aren't factoring in as to why this can actually happen: The potential Democratic opponents are both deeply flawed and easy to attack. When Bernie has to get specific and not speak in his own type of populism (which he is using I'm sure you can see), he's probably finished.
Quote:
Originally Posted by octothorp
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10 days ago he had Trump with little chance of winning Iowa. Today he has him as the overwhelming favorite.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...an/#polls-only
Now I am projecting to a degree, but the consensus is if Trump wins the first 3 primaries, it's over. Nate is now predicting Trump will win the first 3 primaries. So I suppose I am putting words in his mouth, but it's not a stretch.