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Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis
Nate Silver, using all his traditional metrics and approaches, has been saying since July Trump would never last and will never be the nominee. He now concedes Trump will very likely be the nominee. This is someone who studies this for a living, and he's been wrong again and again and again on Trump. He's essentially trying to use a traditional approach to analyzing a candidate who is so far from traditional he might as well be running as an alien.
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No, that's simply not true. Silver never said he thought Trump wouldn't win because of metrics.
"But the reason I’ve been#especially skeptical#about Trump for most of the election cycle isn’t listed above. Nor is it because I expected Trump to spontaneously combust in national polls. Instead, I was skeptical because I assumed that influential Republicans would do almost anything they could to prevent him from being nominated."
And for the record, he's still skeptical of Trump winning the nomination
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History hasn't applied even slightly so far. But now it's just going to start mattering? Nevermind that he hasn't gotten to a true one-on-one against Hillary. Remember he basically has carte blance to be as sexist and over the top with her as he needs to be. We have 7 months that shows his disgusting approach won't hurt him in the polls, and is more likely to help him. He's also the first social media populist, where the lack of facts matters even less.
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Again, I don't think you're giving the general electorate enough credit. Trump has a -70 unfavorabilty index amongst Democrat voters and - 27 amongst independents. That is favorable minus unfavorable and you're telling me he has stolen 15-20% of the Democratic vote? No he hasn't, you're making up numbers.
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Once again, you are assuming Trump's supporters are actually nothing but GOP supporters. This is simply not true. I wouldn't be slightly shocked if Trump has stolen 15-20% of the Democratic base in this election. He's not appealing to the GOP base as I mentioned before, he's appealing to stupid, scared, racist, ignorant people. People who think Trump has no chance assume that can only be because his base of hate is simply the GOP base. No, it's a lot of Americans, a lot more than people think. And a lot more than just the GOP base.
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You're making sampling assumptions here that aren't true. Trump supporters are up to 20% self identifying as liberal. What you're missing here is that of self identifying liberals, only a small fraction of them don't absolutely loathe him. What do I mean? Trump only has support from 27% of the population right now. What percentage of his supporters are liberal is irrelevant here. Head to head polls against Hillary and Sanders have him losing my a fairly wide margin (though they don't predict much as it's too early, they give a decent look at where candidates are currently).
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Trump only has to flip 4 states from Obama in 2012, hold the one's Romney won (which is essentially guaranteed), and he's President. It's surprising people think him winning is literally impossible. Keep dismissing him at your own peril, but even many influential Democrats are starting to realize (and say) this isn't a joke, this could really happen.
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Firstly, that's all Romney had to do and he had better polling numbers amongst almost every demographic.
Secondly, what's my peril here? Of course Democrats are telling people to worry about a Republican nominee and manufacture fear. It serves their purpose.
Things can always change. No one can say is impossible for a Trump to win. It is improbable though