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Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist
Like what, exactly?
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Nate Silver, using all his traditional metrics and approaches, has been saying since July Trump would never last and will never be the nominee. He now concedes Trump will very likely be the nominee. This is someone who studies this for a living, and he's been wrong again and again and again on Trump. He's essentially trying to use a traditional approach to analyzing a candidate who is so far from traditional he might as well be running as an alien.
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History still applies. He is not the first populist. Maybe in your lifetime.
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History hasn't applied even slightly so far. But now it's just going to start mattering? Nevermind that he hasn't gotten to a true one-on-one against Hillary. Remember he basically has carte blance to be as sexist and over the top with her as he needs to be. We have 7 months that shows his disgusting approach won't hurt him in the polls, and is more likely to help him. He's also the first social media populist, where the lack of facts matters even less.
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The GOP's race is far, far different from the general election. Trump can win a race between 6 or 7 candidates for an electorate where his populism has enough ardent followers. He will have almost no support among moderates or undecided, and even less among the left. He has no chance
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Once again, you are assuming Trump's supporters are actually nothing but GOP supporters. This is simply not true. I wouldn't be slightly shocked if Trump has stolen 15-20% of the Democratic base in this election. He's not appealing to the GOP base as I mentioned before, he's appealing to stupid, scared, racist, ignorant people. People who think Trump has no chance assume that can only be because his base of hate is simply the GOP base. No, it's a lot of Americans, a lot more than people think. And a lot more than just the GOP base.
Trump only has to flip 4 states from Obama in 2012, hold the one's Romney won (which is essentially guaranteed), and he's President. It's surprising people think him winning is literally impossible. Keep dismissing him at your own peril, but even many influential Democrats are starting to realize (and say) this isn't a joke, this could really happen.