I think one thing missing from this analysis is hedging. I would suspect that most Companies hedged at least some of their production in order to survive the downside risk of 2016. And those that didn't hedge would have strong enough balance sheets to handle the production losses. In the SAGD space you permanently damage your production by shutting off steam.
So it likely takes until the latter part of the year with prices being where they are or lower to have production being shut in.
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