Quote:
Originally Posted by Jay Random
It isn't $700 million annually. It's per month:
http://blogs.wsj.com/numbers/how-muc...-channel-1626/
In 2014, U.S. cable companies were paying an average of $6.04 per month per subscriber for ESPN. That figure has been rising steadily and quickly. And that, I agree, is unsustainable. That's a pool of billions of dollars a year for ESPN to spend on programming, and while it isn't going to go away entirely, it could shrink very quickly.
The current model allows ESPN to levy a tax of more than $70 per year on millions of cable subscribers who don't want sports and never watch their channel. Their product is not being demanded by consumers, but by middlemen who want to be able to say that they carry every major channel. As the middlemen are disintermediated, that particular chunk of demand is going to go away. Can you imagine an ISP adding several dollars a month to your Internet bill so they can say, ‘We have access to espn.com’? Of course not; the Internet doesn't work that way. And the Internet is steadily eroding the market position of cable TV.
Yup. I'm an old hand at disruption, myself. Most of the jobs I've had in the past came about because new technology disrupted a previous industry and created new opportunities; and most of those jobs don't exist anymore because newer technology came along and disrupted them in turn.
At present, I'm seeing the disruption happen up close and personal in the publishing industry, which is a kissing cousin to other media businesses. The people running old-line publishing companies think they've found the golden goose because new tech allows them to cut their costs. But they are not going to survive in the long run, because the same new tech allows writers and readers to bypass them entirely. Every media business is vulnerable to this form of disruption, including broadcast sports. |
That's not demand, that's distribution. Demand is defined by viewership.
I agree that the current cable model is going to be under increased pressure. But that is the nature of the industry - outmoded models constantly getting replaced.
You said yourself you have personally watched new technologies replace old, over and over. No reason not to think the same isn't going to continue to happen again and again.
Disruptions? Turmoil? Maybe. But the death of sports? Not a chance IMO.
And if anyone thinks sports is going to be free on the internet for everyone... well, I think those people are in for a surprise and disappointment.