[Itse]

Let's compare some prediction methods from last season.

Corsi-Predicted teams in order of probability to make it, February 10th 2015. which was the first day such a prediction was posted in last years version of this thead.

Teams in red actually made it.


NSH (100%)
ANA (99.9%)
STL (99.6%)
CHI (98.1%)
VAN (78.4%)
WPG (77.7%)
LA (69%)
SJ (65.9%)
MIN (41.1%)
DAL (37.8%)
CGY (31%)
COL (1.5%)
ARI (0.1%)
EDM (0.0%)

Same list, but in order of actual standings Feb 10th 2015:
NSH (78 pts)
ANA (75)
STL (74)
CHI (69)
WIN (66)
SJ (63)
CGY (63)
VAN (61)
MIN (59)
LA (58)
DAL (58)
COL (55)
ARI (47)
EDM (39)

Same list again, but in order of goal difference:
CHI (+38)
STL (+35)
NSH (+33)
CGY (+17)
ANA (+10)
VAN (+6)
WIN (+6)
SJ (E)
MIN (-1)
LA (-1)
DAL (-4)
COL (-15)
ARI (-54)
EDM (-60)



To sum up:
Corsi-predictions at best told us nothing that wasn't already apparent from the actual standings. You'd have been better off just watching the standings. Goal differentials were almost exactly on the money in both conferences. (In the other conference the 9th team Ottawa eventually made it and the 8th team Boston dropped out.)


The teams with the highest goal differential in their conference also made the Stanley cup final, and the team with the highest goal differential eventually won the championship.

Time to bet money on Capitals beating the Stars for the 2016 championship.