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Bunk · 01-08-2016, 11:41 AM

A bit of math:

Assuming $240 milllion for CalgaryNext and say roughly half of the say $300 million in additional costs - assuming say the remediation part is picked up by the Provincial Government.

A total ~$400 million CRL at the minimum (not including borrowing costs).

Under the most optimistic of optimistic scenarios, the best I could come up with for revenue from a CRL was $257 million for a 20 year CRL period.

A few of my assumptions (based on roughly half the maximum development yield the West Village ARP anticipated):

- Up to 3000 residential units with a starting market value of $450,000 absorbing at about 200 units per year starting in year five up to full absorption by year 20. Average market value increase of 3% a year. Revenue neutral mill rate increase of .01 annually. The revenue yield assumes the Province would agree to forego their portion of the education property tax.

- Up to 2,000,000 million square feet commercial (including office, retail etc) of a starting blended value of $350 a foot increasing over time. 500,000 sq ft starting in year five and absorbing an additional 250,000 sq ft a year to full build out by year 11. Revenue neutral mill rate increase of .01 annually.

It would take to about year 28 to reach $400 million in revenue. You would of course need more to cover interest costs of borrowing. Again, this is the most optimistic scenario that seemed within the realm of reason.

01-08-2016, 11:41 AM	#148
Bunk Franchise Player Join Date: Jul 2006 Exp:	A bit of math: Assuming $240 milllion for CalgaryNext and say roughly half of the say $300 million in additional costs - assuming say the remediation part is picked up by the Provincial Government. A total ~$400 million CRL at the minimum (not including borrowing costs). Under the most optimistic of optimistic scenarios, the best I could come up with for revenue from a CRL was $257 million for a 20 year CRL period. A few of my assumptions (based on roughly half the maximum development yield the West Village ARP anticipated): - Up to 3000 residential units with a starting market value of $450,000 absorbing at about 200 units per year starting in year five up to full absorption by year 20. Average market value increase of 3% a year. Revenue neutral mill rate increase of .01 annually. The revenue yield assumes the Province would agree to forego their portion of the education property tax. - Up to 2,000,000 million square feet commercial (including office, retail etc) of a starting blended value of $350 a foot increasing over time. 500,000 sq ft starting in year five and absorbing an additional 250,000 sq ft a year to full build out by year 11. Revenue neutral mill rate increase of .01 annually. It would take to about year 28 to reach $400 million in revenue. You would of course need more to cover interest costs of borrowing. Again, this is the most optimistic scenario that seemed within the realm of reason. __________________ Trust the snake. Last edited by Bunk; 01-08-2016 at 11:50 AM.