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First of all the Lightning's 2nd round pick would not be 60. 2nd of all if a 60th pick has zero value does the 104th pick have negative value because that's where the Flames picked Johnny Gaudreau.
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If the lightning got Gio their pick would probably end up around 60th.
The odds of a 2nd rounder playing over 50 games in their career is around 40%
http://www.tsn.ca/playing-the-percen...draft-1.206144
However, lower 2nd rounder are even worst.
Here is another analysis using 150 games
http://www.milehighhockey.com/2014/7...ft-percentages
And no a 3rd rounder doesn't have a negative value. Sure 1/1000 you get a Johnny, but 99% of the time you get at best a bottom 6 forward bottom 2 D role player.
The fact that adding in a low 2nd rounder would swing the trade including our captain is crazy. Heck we got a 2nd and 3rd for Glencross last season who could barely make either teams roster and is now out of hockey.
2nd rounder (Especially in the late 2nd) are the most overrated asset by fans in the league, both in trading and receiving.