Quote:
Originally Posted by Flash Walken
I don't agree.
The dropping of the bomb is a cautionary tale of bureaucratic/military momentum. The Bomb was always going to be used. It was designed and built to be used, first on Germany, and then when that no longer worked as a target, on Japan.
The bomb was ALWAYS going to be dropped, regardless of need, all that was needed was a suitable target. After VE Day in Europe, those targets rested squarely in Japan.
The US estimate for an invasion of Japan was roughly 25-40k casualities on the American side, with the most intense fighting predicted outside Tokyo in the spring months. There's no evidence that any American in a position of authority expected half a million deaths, nor did that reasoning become canon until after 1945.
Certainly, regardless of what you think about the motivations for dropping the first bomb, dropping the second bomb was completely unecessary and should be viewed as a war crime.
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With respect I don't know where you get those estimates from, they essentially are the estimates for the landing alone.
A study done for Secretary of War Henry Stimson's staff by William Shockley estimated that conquering Japan would cost 1.7–4 million American casualties, including 400,000–800,000 fatalities, and five to ten million Japanese fatalities.