Quote:
Originally Posted by blankall
You fail to mention that after those 6 weeks Avatar's international take fell off a cliff.
So without the release of China SW is about 40 billion below where Avatar was in weekend 3 internationally. And while China won't be a huge market for SW, it will contribute 20+ million for the first few weekends and probably give SW 200-300 million overall extra box office.
Star wars has also been absolutely destroying Avatar domestically:
Week 1: SW ahead by 253 million.
Week 2: SW ahead by 115 million.
Star Wars is also the type of movie that people are going to on the weekdays to avoid lines. Your foreign numbers only look at weekends. The weekday numbers for Star Wars have been incredible. SW should sail into 3rd all time this next week and then will easily pass Avatar before its done.
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Hey, I'm rooting for Star Wars to take down Pocahontas 3D more than anybody, I just think it will take a very impressive response from the remaining territories to make it so. They'll basically have to match what Star Wars has already done in North America.
My inexperienced, casual following of the box office over the years leads me to think Star Wars will shake up something like this:
Domestic: 1.1 billion (which would be incredible. that is a massive accomplishment. Thats adding another blockbuster, Marvel movie-esque total to its already impressive #1 all time haul)
The international territories it's already been released in: 1 billion (it's neck and neck with the domestic (786 vs 742) so it seems reasonable? Assuming the international box office has less people spending money to see it again)
That leaves another 600-700 million for it to make up in it's remaining territories. China appears to be the only major territory left for it to open in and again, a big pull is far from guaranteed (it opened up in India on the 25th and fell well below expectations and failed to beat two hindi movies on it's opening weekend:
http://www.dnaindia.com/entertainmen...-india-2161099)
I really hope it does it though. All it takes is it to out perform my guesses by a hundred million here and there and it becomes a real possibility. We will see how it does in China this weekend and we'll know for sure if it has a shot.
Hey, I said that I didn't think it would cross 1 billion domestically and it looks well on track to do that so lets hope it keeps exceeding every expectation.